Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Union Resources - longer term outlook - its a short term sell

Union Resources (UCL.ASX) last Friday released its preliminary feasibility study. There are a number of reasons why it offered a mix of good and bad news:
1. There is nothing technically bad about the project; it is a world class project and I think it will be globally a very competitive source of product (phosphate)
2. There is going to be a longer development lead time than I expected based on this report.
3. Expect the stock to fall back - probably to the 0.6-0.8c support levels in coming months, at which point this stock represents attractive long term buying
4. There remains the prospect of a takeover by Minemakers (MAK.ASX)

I have had other commitments of late, so little time to trade stocks. I bought UCL several weeks ago at 1.1c...I was able to unload 1/3rd of my holding at 1.4c, buying it back at 1.1c. The feasibility study gave me the opportunity to sell 2/3rds at 1.3c, the balance I was unable to sell yesterday, as I was invited to the induction of new generals into the Philippines National Police in Camp Crame, Metro Manila. So I sold the remaining 1/3rd this morning.

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Monday, June 06, 2011

MIL Resources (MGK.ASX) - better buying ahead

MIL Resources (MGK.ASX) might be looking at a time of 1.1c before they recover. Despite their very attractive prospects, the company is not taking a path best for shareholders, but rather spreading their cash resources very thinly. This is of course a problem for shareholders between now and when they ultimately reach bottom - I'd say at 1.1c. The problem is not the quality of the projects but timing and strategy:
1. The directors are not acting in the best interests of short range shareholders - but those looking for long term opportunities. What is the difference? Some are directors accumulating unpaid salary which I dare say will be paid out from debased shares with options at an opportune time.
2. There projects are long term, i.e. Titanomagnetite resources to be developed in a decade, and gold resources (very attractive) requiring a lot of drilling. Easy to get excited; but what happens after the great requires - another drilling program requiring money.
In the short term, I believe this stock is too long term. It has over $4mil in cash, which will not go very far in PNG, given the dispersion of projects they are testing. Thereafter there is upside with:
1. Exploration results from drilling
2. Farming in by JV partners who will have 3D results to justify farm-in and high buy-in provisions
3. A stronger gold price

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Sunday, June 05, 2011

Union Resources (UCL.ASX) - making a 2nd move

Union Resources (UCL.ASX) can be expected to take another run from herein. Having bought in 2 weeks ago for 1.1c, I sold some at 1.3c, and bought back today restored that holding at 1.1c. This stock can be expected to return to 1.4-1.5c, for a little consolidation before moving back to 2c.
The 1.1c level was support. The 1.4c level was resistance. I sold some at 1.3c because I was en-route to the Philippines, and missed an opportunity to get a higher price.
Refer to previous posts on this stock, i.e. search for 'phosphate'.

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