Thursday, July 28, 2011

Realm Resources (ASX:RRP) - or was that 'real'?

This is a stock I found 2 weeks ago which was trading at a support. I see that its up 20% today on the announcement that they have an expand coal resource. This is an attractive buy on the face of it. The problem I have is the high entry price for buying into the project ($20mil plus equity).
The other issue for me is whether there are any issues barging coal down the Barito River. They are so far up the Barito River...I'm wondering if the 'proverbial paddle' would do them any good. Barging is a wonderfully low-cost mode of transporting coal, but up the top, you will have issues with shifting sand bars, adequate water levels.
As a coal analyst, I didn't have the opportunity to deal with projects this far up, or to live and breath this river. It might well still be a substantive river at this point.
If you know the answers - great!
This is a fairly low energy coal, so better suited to domestic power generation. No problem; the Indonesian economy is doing well!
The problem with companies buying projects at the top of the commodities boom is that there is very little profit to etch out by shareholders. In this case, I there is plausibly a profit because of the Asian growth, i.e. Sustainable prices. But then I think there are cheaper entries. i.e. Coal seam gas in Australia. This project though is close to production. Still, I'm interested if they are "mining the market", and will suddenly announce that they cannot ship ore, so they have to truck it 300-500km down river. For you to find out. I'm a lazy analyst!

Sunday, July 17, 2011

MIL Resources (MGX.ASX) - prepares for drilling

A number of announcements have been released by MIL Resources (MGK.ASX) over the past week which should result in interest from the 'gold market'. These announcements can be downloaded from the ASX:
2. Golden Peak trenching results - this report suggests that the company has yet to report for the trenching of the broader Western Zone geochemical anomaly. My guess is that geochemical results for this region will be released in the next few weeks, and that the zone might be added to the drilling program.

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

MIL Resources (MGX.ASX) - a mover!

This is one of my favourite stocks - for several reasons:
1. Its so undervalued compared to its contemporaries
2. Its got great projects
3. Its timing for exploration is good - its a gold boom
I was recently expecting this stock to fall to 1.1c. This was on the basis of several concerns:
1. Slow drilling schedule - which I expected to cause the stock languish - it did, but not to the extent of reaching my target - 1.1c.
2. Technical support - The strongest support was 1.1c, and I expected it to at least fall to that level for a short term before recovering.
3. Loss of confidence - I actually expected a rapid correction due to market correction. I expected this to hit explorers who are considered less tangible. The broader market did fall; though my forecast was a little 'tragic', so MGK only fell as low as 1.4c.
4. Priorities - The company continues to allocate funding to its titanomagnetite project, which I see as a long term strategic assets. This might be because it has a statutory 'minimum spend' to comply with, however I do see this project as a short term distraction from the 'greater gold' value.
5. Gold price - it started to recover.
6. End of tax year - This was the other short term negative on the stock.
In response to consolidation, and the stronger gold price, MGK share price, I jumped on the stock from last week. I was still accumulating as of yesterday. So I should at least reverse my prior negativity which was mostly short term. I have also been busy in recent times...so equities are not getting my full focus.

I cannot recall when the drilling program is due - I think around Sept 2011; however there will be short term trenching results, which will at least give some surface indicators of the tenure of the gold grades, and the lateral extent. For this reason, we might expect some short term strength. The technical resistance levels are 2.5c, 3c, 3.7c, 4c, 4.5c. It will not be a straight line.

Tuesday, July 05, 2011

Base Metals Ltd (BSM.ASX) - off support

Base Metals Ltd (BSM.ASX) offers one of the best exposures to the base metals industry if you believe that industrial metal prices are going to stay high. i.e. That China and the third world are expanding at such a rate to offset weakness in the developed world, and that the developed world is about to be transformed by globalisation....nevermind what is happening in Greece. I am in the Philippines as we speak. The economy here is very strong. Property prices are booming, and yields are still very reasonable compared to the rest of Asia. There are a lot of people working in the coffee shops, whether call centre agents, programmers or the like. Suzuki has a 80,000 motorbike plant here, and has committed to a new 200,000 unit plant.
So why BSM? The company has an established treatment plant at Hellyer, Tasmania. This is an old mining centre operated by Aberfoyle before if I'm not mistaken. The new operators are modifying the plant and recommissioning it on the basis of extensions to worked out operations. I see a lot of upside if they can 10 years more operating life from the project area. The company is only capitalised at $42mil according to Google Finance, and they have $15mil in cash, they own the treatment plant. I think these are pretty humble numbers, so I agree with the CEO...there is potential for a revaluation up to $500mil; with excitement for traders on every drill hit. Some drilling results out already look good. I jumped on this stock because the technicals look good. The 20c support level looks good...so I've grabbed some. Their moving average is about to cross, and sellers have backed off.
I'd not be surprised to see a Japanese, Korean or Chinese trading company back this company with further development finance. i.e. Any new development headings will cost money, and I'm unsure how much of the $15mil is left. Besides, I do need to do more research. But looks ok so far. More info - File 1 - File 2

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