Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Stocks to watch in Australian mining

Other appealing stocks at the moment are:
1. Global Metals & Mining (GBE.ASX): This company has an advanced niobium project in Africa. Niobium is used as a steel additive, and can be a substitute for tantalum in cell phone capacitors. The company has a market capitalisation of $24mil (223mil shares on issue), and yet it has $35mil in cash. It has just secured a credit facility from a Chinese bank to fund the niobium project, it has a share-buyback strategy in place, and its getting some exciting drilling results for graphite (5-10% graphite is ok grade) and rare earths/fluorite in other projects. The company is seeking a listing on the Toronto exchange in order to raise its profile. That's smart. Buyback shares in Australia, raise more money at higher prices in Australia.
2. Union Resources (UCL.ASX) - The company has a 45% share in an offshore phosphate resource in Namibia. Its JV partner failed to takeover UCL, and now UCL is undertaking a takeover of Minemakers (MAK.ASX). Personally, I would prefer not to see UCL add a premium for MAK's Queensland phosphate resource because its located in an isolated region. The best course of action would be a in-species listing of their respective Namibian phosphate asset, or better still a buy-in by a major investor. This latter option strikes me as the most likely prospect. UCL has the best looking balance sheet; most particularly because it retains any upside from the Iranian Mehiabhad lead-zinc project, which has immense value...if they are able to avoid nationalisation by the Iranian government. This project probably has a NPV of $300-500mil, depending on the scale of the project and prices. The implication is that UCL is well-positioned. It has cash reserves of $2.8mil and 95mil shares in issue at 16c. This company is likely to be a long-life phosphate producer. Expect a takeover or scheme of arrangement to greatly add value to UCL, and MAK as well. 
3. Metals Ex Ltd (MLX.ASX): This is a company that I have liked for some time, particularly for its nickel exposure. Tin prices buoyant, so its appealing that this company produces 2.5% of the world's tin supply, and is expanding production and reducing costs. Fortunately a tight tin market heralds well for this project, however one must acknowledge that the profit margins are thin, and the global resource grade of 0.8% is way below the current mining grade of 1.48%Sn. The more significant issue is the prospect of developing its nickel project, one of the largest undeveloped nickel resources in the world. Nickel is an important alloy in stainless steel, and given the huge market for stainless steel, as well as the life of building facades, expect this to underpin projects like this. I expect this company to make substantial returns from its nickel project. The company is in the process of merging with Westgold, which has the potential to contribute 200,000oz/year of gold production. MLX also has $105mil of investments and cash. I'm expecting a recovery in gold prices due to the very low interest rate environment and perhaps modest inflation.

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Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Union Resources-Minemakers phosphate tussle

There is a stalemate in the case of the Union Resources and Minemaker takeover bids for each other. Clearly the problem is that both companies want to progress the Namibian offshore phosphate project, but neither will willing to concede each others valuation. I personally find Minemaker's Wonorah phosphate deposit to be not very valuable because its a large resource in a remote location. Why would a Union Resource shareholder want to dilute their equity with that project, when there is a perfectly located offshore project in Namibia easily beneficiated. It gets better for Union Resources shareholders because an Omanese state engineering company has acquired a 19.9% stake in the company, which means that UCL shareholders will have a better change of getting value from a successful bid. If you read the background Target statement of Minemakers, MAK have no shareholder to give shareholders a blocking state. They don't have the cash for a cash bid, so I think there bid will fall empty. At least UCL shareholders can expect more equity value from their Omanese shareholder. 

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Thursday, July 19, 2012

Top ASX stocks for a moving market

The US market has had some positive earnings reports overnight. We need to remember that the US is rebuilding savings in the household sector, and that the corporations are cashed up. The implication is that there is scope for significant business investment, but I wouldn't be expecting a 'flash flood' of economic activity since the corporate sector is depending on consumer or export market action. 
The market outlook is more positive elsewhere. This is however a trade opportunity. My focus is on the low-cap stocks in Australia which offer strategic value. Cases in point where I have been buying on weakness:
1. Union Resources (UCL.ASX): This stocks has been very good to me as a trade in the past. Mostly on speculation about its Iranian lead-zinc project; the largest undeveloped project in the world. There is a huge sovereign risk attached to Iran of course, so the company has sought out and developed the Mossburger phosphate deposit in offshore Namibia in a JV with Minemakers Ltd (MAK.ASX). Recently an petroleum engineering services company in Oman (the new oil sheikdom) emerged with a 20% stake in UCL; so there is the prospect of a takeover here. This is of course not a surprise to me. I have long written about the prospects for a takeover of this company. The project is at feasibility stage, and really needs some love from a large company. This company fits the bill. After a capital reconstruction, UCL has a market value of just $13mil for a world-class asset with an equity-based NPV of around $100mil; with upside in Iran. We bought this stock yesterday for $0.15.

These stocks are less compelling because there is no imminent or pressing value to be realised to my knowledge.
3. Clean Seas Tuna (CSS.ASX) - It has a strategic positive developing farmed kingfish and other species in South Australia. This company has some backing, but has struggled to firm up a breeding program. The globe is suffering from over-fishing and stricter controls are destined to push fish prices up. Or might we displace our pallet with cheaper fish in other markets. No doubt there will be a move both ways. 
4. Gippsland Ltd (GIP.ASX) is another favourite stock. It is developing a tantalum deposit in Egypt. Not the most stable of places given the political instability. They do however possess a very large tantalum-tin-feldspar resource, and they are capitalised at just $9.75mil. I'm inclined to wait on this one for a better price because there is no clear motive for them to move - except a high tantalum price. Tantalum is not exactly the rarest of commodities. i.e. Australia, South Africa, Canada, Greenland as potential sources of supply. I will buy on weakness as the market is very thin despite its near 1bil issued capital. The fear is actually the prospect of a consolidation. My experience is that consolidations usually undermine a share price. 
5. Vital Metals (VML.ASX) is developing a tungsten project in Queensland, as well as a gold project in Africa. China produces 85% of the world's tungsten and is expected to curtail supplies from illegal mines. This creates appeal for tungsten miners in the West. There is a project being backed by Warren Buffet in South Korea (through a Canadian group), plus an Woulf Resources, with its project in Mexico. Vital also has the Kota gold project in Burkina Faso. 2nd round drilling suggests high grade, modest resource. 

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Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Speculative stocks to watch

There are some good speculative buys which are going to emerge from this current crisis of confidence. The market is currently going through a soft point because:
1. Bad news - with EU governance issues, earnings downgrade in USA, unexpected fall in China's growth.\
2. Arbitrary market outcomes - the current market growth outlook seems very much upon the fiat policies of government, i.e. their arbitrary capacity to print money (i.e. quantitative easing) and the non-responsiveness of higher interest rates.

This is a good time to build a portfolio of stocks which will be strong in any recovery, however at this point one's interest should be in stocks which have access or accumulations of cash.

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