Sunday, August 31, 2014

How to buy spec mining stocks in the forthcoming market correction

There comes a time when investors can make enormous profits from market corrections. You can 'short' the blue chip stocks, however you can also buy various spec stocks when they collapse. Remember that spec stocks are more vulnerable to market corrections, some more than others. So if the 'broad blue chip' market index is destined to fall 12-20%, the specs are probably going to fall 50-70%, depending on the merits and capitalisation/liquidity of specific stocks.
For this reason, I wanted to introduce readers to the benefits of 'knowing when to buy'. I'm telling you now because I will have a serious conflict of interest telling you later. Well, I can assure you if you are asking me when I'm trying to buy, I'm not going to tell you when and what to buy because you'll be competing with me in a very illiquid market. Read this blog post - it should give you helpful advice. You might think illiquidity is a bad thing, but its the cause of a corresponding 'opportunity', so you can't say its bad. Its a trade-off. You get more upside with your downside. Over all, if you choose the right stocks, you will come out ahead anyway, but why endure substantial downside unnecessarily.
Don't forget to use your chart trends and levels to pick points. And avoid 'market indicators' because they are 'too insensitive' in times of substantial market moves. i.e. They are seriously lagging the price action. 

Asian property markets outperforming Japan Foreclosed Guide Philippines Property Guide
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Monday, August 18, 2014

Red 5 Ltd (RED.ASX) moves closer to resumption of gold mining

Gold is not exactly the hottest metal in the performance stakes at the moment, but if you have good grades and low operating costs, then that's not too much of a concern. Red 5 Ltd (RED.ASX), a gold miner in the Philippines, was doing fine until it breached an environmental condition of its operating lease, and was forced to close its operations in the Philippines. During the shutdown it has been rebuilding a tailings dam so that it could resume operations. My expectation is that, given the cost burdens of a mothballed operation, I'm expecting that it will attempt to fast track the reconstruction of the tailings dam. The dam wall was breached by a gapping crack that brought into question the integrity of the wall. I suspect the crack developed because subsidence, which would suggest inadequate preparations of the foundation before building the wall.
In any respect, the company has already resumed mining, though it will need to finish the tailings dam wall before it can start mining in earnest. I'm expecting an earlier rather than later decision. Looking at the chart, the stock has already broken out from the 9c resistance, and we can expect this stock to get to 11c, before it will face some selling pressure. The resumption of mining will be the news that 'propels them' beyond 11c.
The company is capitalised at just $68 million, despite having:
1. Some $35mil in cash - less the cost of earthworks
2. The capacity to produce mine output of 70,000 oz per annum until they move underground
3. Exploration upside - there is appealing targets still

I've not performed a financial valuation of the company, since I'm only looking for a short term trade from the stock. Long term investors will need to look at the cost demands of the transition from an open-cut to underground operation. The gold price is the uncertainty. There is little reason to fear inflation; but we must also remember that gold is a 'stable asset' class in these times of high 'yield-valued' commodities. When you have high asset prices, gold is by default, the only asset class that is under-valued. Of course there is emerging market property as well. We actually think there is more upside to asset prices generally, and that we are destined to see a succession of 'mini-bubble bursts' if you like....as opposed to a 'whomper bust'. The fundamentals for the global economy are actually pretty good.

Asian property markets
outperforming
Japan Foreclosed Guide
Philippines Property Guide
Profit from mining with
 Global Mining Investing eBook 
 Global Mining Investing Community.