1. Stage of development - the stocks ranking over $1000 are in production, the stocks in the $300-500 range are still developing resources. They have not prepared a feasibility study so the project sponsor can't give you an accurate picture of realistic cashflows from the mine scheduling for ore block extraction. Without that info there is greater risk attached to the project.
2. Recoverable grade - Its apparent that most of the projects have a recoverable grade of around 1% copper. The exception is URL - with a grade of 0.73% Cu. That has to impact on mine profitability...but there are other issues - the big ones being economies of scale, strategic objectives and our forward-looking price assumptions.
So why is URL so low?
Before we get excited there are several things we need to know about URL. The company controls alot of copper - 933,000 tonnes of it, worth billions. These resources are spread among 10 pits, so there is even more upside in exploration potential around the mine planned pit margins and even underground potential below the pits.
The marginal grade of the ore has a big impact on mine value. The forecast cash cost of the mine is $1.10/lb compared to likely $0.60-0.80/lb for the other projects, which have higher grades and less onerous capital expenditure demands. URL need to raise $340mil compared to their much lower market capitalisation of just $25mil. Consider that if we assume an unreasonably high (current) copper price of $3.50/lb, the project has a NPV of $960mil. But if we assume a capital cost of $2/lb, the project has a NPV of $140mil. Thats a huge difference.
But consider the strategic value of a centrally located copper processing facility in one of the most important copper provinces in the world. Xstrata has recognised the potential of these resources since it has contracted to earn a 51% stake in the underground potential (below 200m depth) by spending $15mil. Really $15mil figures means nothing since they can withdrawal after a lesser commitment. In fact the company has screwed up because Xstrata - one of the world's largest copper miners, gets a strategic stake in a huge mine for little outlay, and effectively locks out the competition from dealing with URL. Companies like Teck Corp of Canada. Clearly these copper deposits and and any centrally-located processing plant associated with these deposits has a strategic value. The value its greatest for Xstrata since it already has significant capital invested at Mt Isa Mines (having taken over MIM several years ago). Clearly the deal is sweeter for Xstrata if it can:
1. Find higher grade copper ore through exploration
2. Take over other explorers with higher grade ores in the area
The URL clearly did not see the strategic importance of this project. I would argue that they should have got a firmer commitment on capital expenditures for the testing of the UG potential (the SEET project), or raised more capital to test the UG potential themselves...if only with a few deep holes.
Going forward, URL is a company with a $25mil market capitalisation (292mil shares at 8.8c) and $7mil in cash. Aside from some uranium exposure, the attributed value of their project is $18mil. That seems very low considering the exploration potential of its ground, the outlook for copper prices and established resources. For this reason I bought a stake, in the hope that:
1. Xstrata will make a takeover offer for URL after it has:
a) Proven that higher grade ore exists below the existing pits
b) Found higher grade ores in the area through its only exploration efforts
c) Taken over other companies in the area, or negotiated control over additional high grade ore
Any of these steps would justify Xstrata taking over URL. Given the lack of competition that URL management have effectively excluded, its likely that Xstrata will be able to purchase the company for about double its current value.
So this is a hard stock to pick because Xstrata need not be in a hurry...they have until 2010 to expend $15mil to earn their 51% stake. But in case you are thinking that copper prices might sink to $0.8/lb like they did in the late 1990s, think again...we are in the midst of a commodities boom driven by China, India and other countries. We are not likely to see copper prices under $2.00/lb for some time, and I think $2.50-2.80/lb is a more likely average price. So I see the URL project NPV around $300-500mil. But I dont expect shareholders to see much of that. Xstrata will play hard ball, just as they did over the Windimurra Vanadium project. It seems Xstrata is very good at extracting value from small company managers that under-value the value of their assets. The problem is a lack of commercial/strategic skills in our small mining companies. Take a look at the URL and you see geologists (scientists) and mining engineers (operations). You dont see commericial/strategic thinkers. Thats a problem...because thats a huge source of revenue/value.
I'm sure you are familar with the notion of Australia 'selling the farm' at extraordinarily low prices. Well its not just us, its foreigners as well, as its a global phenomena. Its a lack of capacity for conceptual thinking and the general knowledge required to support it.
Anyway I bought some URL because it offers value from:
1. Further exploration success - by URL or Xstrata
2. Prospect of a URL or neighbour takeover (Exco Res, Copperco)
3. Xstrata (SEET project) drilling success
Haven't decided if it will be a short term trade or a longer term investment. Lets see how the drilling results unfold. At 8.8c its unclear to me whether they will fall to 8c support or even lower.
- Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
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