Monday, October 22, 2007

Technology stocks

The focus of my investments have always been mining, however because of my interest in science I have always had an interest in technology and its commercialisation. In recent years I have recommended a number of technology stocks which have done fairly well. The ones that come to mind are:
1. Papyrus Australia (PPY): I originally saw the story of this new paper fibre on ABC's Landline program around 6 years ago, then around 3 years ago I noticed a ASX report announcement by 'Papyrus' and I knew instantly it had been listed, and followed it conscientiously. Missed out on the price action however for lack of patience, as a Japanese paper company took a stake.
2. ZBB Power Systems (ZBB): This company is developing a new battery suited to commercial power storage for back up supplies and load shifting to benefit from the high cost of emergency supplies (diesel gensets) and time-of-day pricing. The batteries can be used to charge at night (off-peak) and discharge during peak periods. It will have an important implication for the shape of the 24hr power demand curve. The concern I have with these battery devices is that if we ever move to overnight car battery charging, the disparity between on & off-peak will be reduced...even inverted. But there is a demand for the next 10-15 years, and the future is hard to pick.
3. Living Cell Technologies (LCT): I started watching this stock after a report was released about 1-2mths ago, though I never acted on it. They have recently rallied on good news. Cant recall why they appealed to me..yet the rally made me take another look at this sector.
Biotron Limited (BIT.ASX)
Well to some extent these are the stories that got away, but I have recently found another stock that has alot of appeal. The stock is close to running stage 2 clinical trials on a HIV drug that attacks a protein that is the source of the HIV viruses capacity to replicate itself. Other HIV drugs have had limited success in destroying the HIV virus because they dont attack the body reservoir. Biotron's inhibitor-type drug shows 100% success in preliminary trials with these other drugs. I dont get the sense that this drug will work alone, or at least the results are not evident, however it seems encouraging, and the company is taking a similar tact on the hepatitis virus, though development of an antiviral drug for hepatitis is less advanced. The results of the Phase 2 clinical trials are due in mid-2008, though I expect the stock to improve before then in anticipation. In the short term, the company has just $1.3mil in cash, so I'm expecting an issue to raise around $5mil in the next month or two, so stay clear of that, but it should offer some buying opportunities before Xmas. The following chart suggests 12-13c is a good entry point. They are currently trading arounf 19c.
- Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

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