Thursday, December 03, 2009

MIL Resources (MGK.ASX) - break out due?

Over the last week MIL Resources has made its way up from 3.6c to 4.3c on small volumes. One might ask whether this stock is about to break out. Looking at the chart, the stock has been in a consolidation channel. The question is - Is this ascending wedge going to hold up as a trend line? I suspect it will break out in coming weeks)based on news either about a JV over its Amazon Bay iron ore project in PNG, or activity with respect to its gold project in PNG.
There are so many iron ore projects. The question I ask is? How many of them are so close to prospective DRI plants in Asia, how many lie on the coast? How many of them involve extraction of unconsolidated beach sands with dredges? This is a project which lends itself to incremental scaling up. It is the type of project well suited to a minor, but a major would help. You don't need a major terminal. I would suggest offshore self-loading 8,000dwt barges would be adequate, loading into 20,000dwt vessels destined for Singapore, the Philippines or Malaysia. I would be surprised if the total capital cost is more than $20-30million. Of course you can start big and bring in a major partner. In this type of market a Chinese partner might be nice.
I think this stock is way under-valued so I expect as much.
Need a stock update - see the updated chart at Google Finance!
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

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