Monday, November 18, 2013

Acacia Coal (ASX.AJC) - turning point

There is a stock I recommended about 2 months ago at 1.1c called Acacia Coal (AJC.ASX). It has rallied up to 1.5c in the last few day, before falling back to 1.3c, where I bought some more stock. This company is capitalised at at $12 million. The company has around $4.5mil in cash, giving them an enterprise value of $7.5 million. So what do you get for your money. Well, they have an appealing coking coal project in the Emerald region of Queensland. This is prime coking coal territory.

The company has 60Mt identified coking coal resources, and it has scope to increase this. It has negotiated access to a coal loading facility, and is well-set to find a coal buyer who is willing to finance development of the project. This looks like very good exposure to the coal market at a time when we are destined to see:
1. Stronger demand for coal
2. Price recovery
3. Return of interest to resource stocks
4. Governments commitment to end carbon tax, Mineral Resource Rent Tax

Ideally, I might prefer a thermal coal stock, but I suspect they are capable of producing a thermal product as well. You can view the company's latest presentation here. Technically this stock appears ready to break-out of their long downtrend. I suspect that the motivation for that break will be an updated resource calculation, or perhaps an announcement of a farm-in partner. I'm looking for a break above 1.5c. 

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